Science of Persuasion

Back to Behavioral Basics – 6 Principles

I) Principal of Liking – People like those who like them.
II) Principal of Reciprocity – People repay in kind.
III) Principal of Social Proof – People follow the lead of similar others.
IV) Principal of Consistency – People align with their clear commitments.
V) Principal of Authority – People defer to experts.
VI) Principal of Scarcity – People want more of what they can have less of.

Full Excerpt:
https://oedipaldreams.wordpress.com/2019/08/27/harnessing-the-science-of-persuasion/

Category : Psychology

Robert Cialdini © 2001
Excerpted from Harvard Business Review

August 27, 2019

Harnessing the Science of Persuasion

Back to Behavioral Basics – 6 Principles

I) Principal of Liking: People like those who like them.

Application: Uncover real
similarities and offer genuine praise.

Controlled research has identified several factors that reliably increase liking, but two stand out as especially compelling – similarity and praise. Similarity literally draws people together.

Praise, the other reliable generator of affection, both charms and disarms. Sometimes the praise doesn’t even have to be merited. (Researchers at the University of North Carolina writing in the Journal of Experimental Social Psychology found that men felt the greatest regard for an individual who flattered them unstintingly even if the comments were untrue.)


II) Principal of Reciprocity: People repay in kind.

Application:
Give what you want to receive.

If you have ever caught yourself smiling at a coworker just because he or she smiled first, you know how this principal works.

In 1996, purchasing managers admitted to an interviewer from Inc. magazine that after having accepted a gift from a supplier, they were willing to purchase products and services they would otherwise declined. Gifts also have a startling effect on retention (of employees).

Ultimately, though, gift giving is one of the cruder applications of the rule of reciprocity. In its more sophisticated uses, it confers a genuine first-mover advantage on any manager who is trying to foster positive attitudes and productive personal relationships in the office: Managers can elicit the desired behaviour by displaying it first – whether it’s a sense of trust, a spirit of cooperation, or a pleasant demeanor.


III) Principal of Social Proof: People follow the lead of similar others.

Application: Use peer power whenever it’s available.

Social creatures as they are, human beings rely heavily on the people around them for cues on how to think, feel, and act.


IV) Principal of Consistency: People align with their clear commitments.

Application: Make their commitments active, public, and voluntary.

People need not only to like you but to feel committed to what you want them to do. Good turns are one reliable way to make people feel obligated to you. Another is to win a public commitment from them.

Most people, once they take a stand or go on record in favour of a position, prefer to stick to it. There’s strong empirical evidence to show that a choice made actively – one that’s spoken out loud or written down or otherwise made explicit – is considerably more likely to direct someone’s future conduct than the same choice left unspoken.

The implications are clear for a manager who wants to persuade a subordinate to follow some particular course of action: Get it in writing. Once you believe you’ve won agreement, ask him to summarize the decision in a memo and send it to you. By doing so, you’ll have greatly increased the odds that he’ll fulfill the commitment because, as a rule, people live up to what they have written down.

Written statements become even more powerful when they’re made public. [The experiment] highlights how most people wish to appear consistent to others. Whatever way such commitments are formalized, they should never been like the New Year’s resolutions people privately make and then abandon with no one the wiser. They should be publicly made and visibly posted.

Samuel Butler wrote a couplet that explains succinctly why commitments must be voluntary to be lasting and effective: “He that complies against his will / Is of his opinion still.” If an undertaking is forced, coerced, or imposed from the outside, it’s not a commitment; it’s an unwelcome burden.


V) Principal of Authority: People defer to experts.

Application: Expose your expertise; don’t assume it’s self-evident.

Some questions, be they legal, financial, medical, or technological, require so much specialized knowledge to answer, we have no choice but to rely on experts.

Since there’s good reason to defer to experts, executives should take pains to ensure that they establish their own expertise befrfore they attempt to exert influence. Surprisingly often, people mistakenly assume that others recognize and appreciate their experience.

What we found immensely gratifying was not just how much we increased compliance, but how. We didn’t fool or browbeat any of the patients. We informed them into compliance. Nothing had to be invented; no time or resources had to be spent in the process. The staff’s expertise was real – all we had to do was make it more visible.

[In a social setting]… it is customary for people to spend time interacting socially before getting down to business for the first time. Perhaps it’s a matter of telling an anecdote about successfully solving a problem similar to the one that’s on the agenda at the next day’s meeting. Or perhaps… to describe years spent mastering a complex discipline – not in a boastful way but as part of the ordinary give-and-take of conversation.


VI) Principal of Scarcity: People want more of what they can have less of.

Application: Highlight unique benefits and exclusive information.

Items and opportunities are seen to be more valuable as they become less available. 

Managers can learn from retailers how to frame their offers not in terms of what people stand to gain but in terms of what they stand to lose if they don’t act of the information. The power of “loss language” – significantly more people insulated their home when exposed to the loss language (and told that if they failed to insulate, they would lose X amount each day).

Executives should also remember that exclusive information is more persuasive than widely available data. Example: purchasers of wholesale beef buyers more than doubled their orders when they were told that, because of certain weather conditions overseas, there was likely to be a scarcity of foreign beef in the future. But their orders increased 600% when they were informed that no one else had that information yet.


Summary

Although the six principles and their applications can be discussed separately for the sake of clarity, they should be applied in combination to compound their impact.

For instance, in discussing the importance of expertise, I suggested that managers use informal, social conversations to establish their credentials. But that conversation affords an opportunity to gain information as well as convey it.

While you’re showing your dinner companion that you have the skills and experience your business problem commands, you can also learn about your companion’s background, likes, and dislikes – information that will help you locate genuine similarities and give sincere compliments.

And if you succeed in bringing your dinner partner on board, you may encourage other people to sign on as well, thanks to the persuasive power of social evidence.

Legitimate expertise (V), genuine obligations (II), authentic similarities (I), real social proof (III), exclusive news (VI), and freely made commitments (IV) can produce choices that are likely to benefit both parties.


Category: Psychology

Robert Cialdini © 2001
Excerpted from Harvard Business Review

August 27, 2019

Never Split the Difference (I)

Negotiating As If Your Life Depended On It

Chapter 1: The New Rules

Open-ended question: “How am I supposed to do that?

Example:
“Get me the money or I cut your son’s throat right now!”
How am I supposed to do that?

“So you’re okay with me killing your son, Mr. Voss?”
“I’m sorry, Robert, how do I know he’s even alive?…. I really am sorry, but how can I get you any money right now, much less one million dollars, if I don’t even know he’s alive?

Calibrated questions: queries that the other side can respond to but that have no fixed answers. It buys you time. It gives your counterpart the illusion of control.

***

While I wasn’t actually saying “No,”, the questions I kept asking sounded like it. They seemed to insinuate that the other side was being dishonest and unfair. And that was enough to make them falter and negotiate with themselves. Answering my calibrated questions demanded deep emotional strengths and tactical psychological insights that the toolbox they’d been given did not contain.

It’s a passive-aggressive approach – just ask the same three or four open-ended questions over and over and over and over. They get worn out answering and give [you] everything [you] want.


Heart v.s. Mind

Roger Fisher & William Ury – 4 basic tenents:

1) Separate the person – the emotion, from the problem.

2) Don’t get wrapped up in the other side’s position (what they’re asking for) but instead focus on their interests (why they’re asking for it) so that you can find what they really want.

3) Work cooperatively to generate win-win options.

4) Establish mutually agreed-upon standards for evaluating those possible solutions.

***

Daniel Kahneman:

[I]t is self-evident that people are neither fully rational nor completely selfish, and that their tastes are anything but stable.

Cognitive Bias = unconscious & irrational brain processes that literally distort the way we see the world.

Framing Effect = people respond differently to the same choice depending on how it is framed (e.g. people place greater value on moving from 90% to 100% – high probability to certainty – than from 45% to 55%).

Prospect Theory = why we take unwarranted risks in the face of uncertain losses.

Loss Aversion = how people are statistically more likely to act to avert a loss than to achieve an equal gain.

***

Two Systems of Thought:
System 1 = animal mind = fast, instinctive & emotional
System 2 = slow, deliberative, logical

System 1 is far more influential. [Its] inchoate beliefs, feelings, and impressions are the main sources of the explicit beliefs and deliberate choices of System 2. We react emotionally (System 1) to a suggestion or question. Then that System 1 reaction informs and in effect creates the System 2 answer.


Life is Negotiation

The majority of the interactions we have at work or at home are negotiations that boil down to the expression of a simple, animalistic urge: I want.

Negotiation… is nothing more than communication with results. Getting what you want out of life is all about getting what you want from – and with – other people.

… It simply means playing the emotional game that human society is set up for. In this world, you get what you ask for; you just have to ask correctly. So claim your prerogative to ask for what you think is right.


Key Strategies:
– Active Listening
– Mirroring
– Silences
– Late-Night FM DJ Voice
– Tactical Empathy
– Labeling
– Accusation Audit
– “That’s Right” > Yes
– Summaries

– Paraphrasing
– Getting a “No”
– Acknowledging their right to choose

– Create urgency / deadlines
– Idea of fairness
– Anchoring
– Calibrated Questions (How / What)
– Ackerman system 
– Black Swan


Category: Psychology

Chris Voss © 2016
August 18, 2019

Attraction & Negotiation

Q: What keeps the attraction going? What is the secret to finding the right partner with whom one can sustain a successful long-term relationship? What are the qualities of a successful partnership?

[Transcript excerpt 15:50 – 25:38]

A: Some of it is good fortune.

And I would say that… some things need to be a “given” about the relationship – it doesn’t hurt to find the other person very attractive. And that’s a mysterious thing… we’re not exactly sure what it is that produces chemistry between people. Although chemistry is definitely part of what produces it [attraction].

There are subtle things that attract people to one another that are way below the level of consciousness. So for example, women don’t like the older of men who have Rh blood factors who, if they had children with, would be likely to produce a stillborn infant. (Q: How do you even know?) A: Apparently, you know by odour. Smell is a very strange sense, and its very deeply tied to very profound emotions, including memory. And so you find yourself attracted to people for reasons you can’t always determine (so that was part of it… I have always found her very attractive, and that continues…)

I also like [her] combativeness. You want someone, I think, in a relationship, that you can spar with. And it’s partly because you have hard problems to solve [in life]. And if the person that you are with isn’t willing to put forward their opinion, then you only have half the cognitive power that you would otherwise have.

Hopefully, you will find someone who is interestingly different from you. [But] not so different that you can’t communicate – and you have to be careful of that… but “interestingly” different and then hopefully they have the ability and will to express their opinion. And then your interest stays heightened. There has to be that tension in a relationship. You know, people think: “Well I want to get along perfectly with my partner.” But NO, you probably don’t – you’d just get bored, and then you’d go looking for trouble. And so you want a little bit of  trouble in the relationship, a little bit of mystery and a little bit of combativeness; and the ability to exchange opinions forthrightly.

And I trust her – which is a huge element. (When we finally did decide to get together permanently, we were both in our later 20s…) One of the things that I had learned by that point, and insisted to her about, was that: We have to tell each other the truth. And she took to that wholeheartedly – for better and for worse, because truths can be harsh.

(Q: Does that include questions like: “Does this outfit make me look fat”?
A: The truthful answer to that is.. “I don’t answer questions that are likely to get me in trouble.”)
It’s useful to know the truth. And if I do tell my wife that she looks good in an outfit, she knows that I mean it. So there is some utility in that. And well sometimes she’ll say: “Do you like this?” And sometimes I will tell her that I don’t. That doesn’t necessarily make her happy in the moment but if I do say I like [something], she knows that I do mean it. (And I actually like her sense of style a lot, so it turns out that 90% of the time it’s pretty easy for me to say: “Look, I think it looks great!” and mean it.)

She is a fairly harsh standard-bearer too – she has insisted that I stay in whatever reasonable good physical shape that I happen to be in. That was something that she is very demanding of. And I would say it’s the same from my side…

We have been good at negotiating – which is: “What do you want from a partner, fundamentally? What do you want and need?”

First thing is – Hopefully, you’re blessed with the fact that you find each other attractive. I think it’s very difficult for the relationship to begin, or proceed, or sustain itself without that. But having that, then what do you want? Well you want someone that you can trust, you want someone who can build a view of the future with.

And you want someone you can negotiate with, and that’s very hard –  to negotiate with people. Because they have to tell you what they think; they have to know what they want [or figure it out]; they have to tell you want they what; and they have to be satisfied when they get what they want. Which is also a very difficult thing to manage. And you have to continually update that [negotiations] because your life goes through different stages.

Q: And if your attraction wanes [as we age]…?
A: You have to work at that too – and that’s something that people also don’t understand. Because they tend to think that all romantic interactions should be spontaneous. Well if that’s your theory, you might as well just give up right now, if you’re going to get married… because the only reason you can think that is because you don’t have enough responsibility to make romantic entanglement virtually impossible. And what happens when you’re married, especially if you have little kids, and you both have jobs, is you’re so busy that the probability that you’re going to find time for spontaneous mutual interaction decreases to zero. And so if that’s what you’re hoping for then you’re never going to have it. So what you have to do is you have to make time for each other.

You know, if you’re dating, when you’re establishing a relationship – you put some effort into it… You decide that you’re going to go out for dinner, and you dress up to some degree, and you try to present yourself to each other in some half-ways mutually acceptable manner. And you hope that there’s going to be a positive consequence of that – [which is] you’re going to find each other attractive. But then people somehow think that once they’re married, the same amount of effort isn’t necessary – and that’s wrong. I would say, more effort is necessary on the same front.

And you have to think it through… If you don’t want to be bitter about the intimate element of your relationship – how much time do you have to spend together each week? My rule of thumb [derived from clinical observation] is that – you need to spend 90 minutes a week with your partner talking. And that means you’re telling each other about your life, and staying in touch. So that you each know what the other is up to. And you’re discussing what needs to be done to keep the household running smoothly. And you’re laying out some mutually acceptable vision of how the next week or next months are going to go together. So that keeps your narratives locked together like the strands in a row. You need that for 90 minutes or you drift apart.

And you need to spend intimate time together at least once a week, and probably more like twice. And that has to be negotiated, and if you don’t negotiate it and if you don’t make it a priority it won’t happen in all likelihood. And then well, then you don’t have it and that’s a catastrophe – because there’s not that many things in life that are intrinsically  engaging and meaningful and pleasurable and also bonding [all of that]… and if you let that go, then well part of you dies and part of the relationship dies and then there’s always the possibility of becoming attracted by alternative entanglements, which you would do if you had any spirit left, right? And that’s the thing… if your relationship at home is entirely unsatisfying sexually, what are you supposed to do with that? Nothing? Are you supposed to just bear it? In one way, the answer is yes – because it’s your marriage. But in another way is well, what… that’s all the fight you’ve got in you? You’re going to just let the erotic element of your life die? And accept everything that goes along with that? Because you’re not willing to cause a bit of trouble, to ensure that it’s maintained?

And you know, we’re not very good at thinking these things through consciously. People are bad at negotiating, period. [as far as I can tell] But they’re particularly bad at negotiating things that are deeply private. How much do you want your partner to know about you anyways? It takes a lot of trust to have a real conversation about what you need and want…


Episode #60 December 13 2018
Femsplainers with Christina Hoff Sommers & Danielle Crittenden

The Jordan B. Peterson Podcast [excerpted: 15:50 – 25:38]
https://jordanbpeterson.com/podcasts/60-femsplainers-christina-hoff-sommers-and-danielle-crittenden/

Category: Psychology

Jordan B. Peterson © 2018
January 8, 2019

Negotiations (I: Strategies)

7-38-55 Rule

In negotiations, communication is made up of the following parts:

  • 7% of your meaning is from the words you speak +
  • 38% comes from the inflection / intonation of your voice +
  • 55% comes from body language

Masters of Illusion

The illusion of maintaining control (i.e. staying rational + avoiding negative emotions): We want to put the other person at ease because when we lose control we shut down and there can be no negotiation. Conversely, we don’t want the other party to shut down either or get too defensive. Maintaining control (both sides), or at least the illusion of control (yourself), is key for negotiating the best deal.

In a negotiation, we do dumb things because we lack the emotional control that we normally possess. We want to react immediately – write that email, comment back, say something that hurts. You can never take back a communicative reaction; once it is out there it becomes part of the context forever thereafter.

Be like a professional poker player and get up, walk away, regroup – don’t react after a bad hand. Widen the context, there are other fish in the sea.


Never Indulge Yourself

Never react to to offers, ever. 

If the offer is 10 times what you’re expecting, it’s fantastic – but don’t get excited.

Never Indulge Yourself  – a lot of people have a strong feeling and they “indulge” themselves by expressing it to other folks; they need to get it out. Most people need someone else to get what they’re feeling.

In those situations, you need to play it slow, play it smart. Don’t give an immediate reaction no matter what it is – if it’s three times your price, if it’s one-tenth of your price – ask some questions, ask when [they] need an answer by, consider it, and then come back.


No Reaction – Leading Questions

Often, someone will make you an offer and you feel the need to react to it. Never react in the moment when someone offers you something. 

Always lead with questions:

  • Thank you; I understand the consideration. When do you need an offer by?
  • Is this negotiable?

Ask yourself:

  • “When do I need to make a deal by?”
  • “What are all of the factors that should/could be part of the agreement?”
  • “What is the preferred method of communication?”

Another important question:

  • Is there any flexibility here?”

This is a hugely important question, because in realty you’re not asking for anything. You’re just throwing a layup to figure out exactly who you’re talking to.

Because what are they going to come back with? Either they’re going to say “no” and risk seeming unreasonable; or they could say “yes” and they’re basically inviting you to counter.


Deep Questions

Questions to ask people in a business setting (even outside of the context of a negotiation):

  • What does a win look like to you?
  • What keeps you up at night?

It’s a great way to figure out how people are evaluating success, what their goals are, and what they’re worried about. Because that gives you the “bounds” of the conversation-  that helps you understand what their world looks like in a way that basic chit-chat is not going to do.


Social Proofing

Social proofing = the idea that people might not believe you, but they will believe others on the same subject:

  • Experts
  • Celebrities
  • Users/Consumers
  • Wisdom of the Crowd
  • Friends

This is a common tool in negotiation and salespeople use it. Knowing it is happening makes it easier to eliminate the distraction of social proofing and desire for validation.

Negotiations (II: Bargaining)


Episode 70 – Part 1 (July 18, 2018)
Episode 73 – Part 2  (July 25, 2018)
Episode 76 – Part 3 (August 1, 2018)

Category: Psychology

Jordan Harbinger w/ Alex Kouts © 2018
August 3, 2018

Negotiations (II: Bargaining)

When negotiating for a bargain (e.g. car, TV, mattress):

  1. First, establish a baseline price (use Google etc.).
  2. Ask if they will match advertised prices from a competitor.
  3. Q: “What is your best out the door price?
  4. Q: “Will you do that -10%?
  5. Q: “If you reach my price, I will buy today.
  6. Q: “I am on the phone with xxx; they have this advertised for $xxx. Can you beat that?
  7. Q: “If I buy here, will you throw in xxx?
  8. Q: “What if I pay cash?
  9. Q: “What is a good guy / local discount?
  10. C: “Okay, thank you. It’s helpful to know where you stand. I am going to check out a couple of your competitors and will be back if it makes sense.
  11. WALK AWAY until you find the right price.

Negotiations (III: Job Offer)


Episode 70 – Part 1 (July 18, 2018)
Episode 73 – Part 2  (July 25, 2018)
Episode 76 – Part 3 (August 1, 2018)

Category: Psychology

Jordan Harbinger w/ Alex Kouts © 2018
August 3, 2018

Negotiations (III: Job Offer)

Always use first names (caveat: unless their title vastly exceeds yours – if they’re on LinkedIn, use how they address themselves there as a reference).

  1. Never make the first offer (FU offer).
  2. Always be thankful (Thank them)
  3. Set the tone for the negotiation.
  4. Display social proof / market validation (that you’re in demand).
  5. Set your “ask”.
  6. Help them visualize the win (Present a slam dunk)
  7. Reiterate interest
  8. Close strong.

Letter One (Strong Response) – Template

Bob, [First name: power play]

I appreciate the consideration and the offer. I truly enjoyed our conversation and feel great about the team and company. [reiterate passion; set the tone.]

I need to evaluate this based on other opportunities that I am looking at and will get back to you shortly. [Display social proof / market validation.] As I am doing that it would be helpful to know if there is any flexibility in the terms? [Put them on the defensive.]

I look forward to your response. [Power close]

Cheers,
xxx


Letter Two (Counteroffer) – Template

Bob, [First name: power play]

I appreciate the consideration and the offer. [a meaningless courtesy that doesn’t do much, but when it isn’t there, people notice] I am very excited about the team, the product and the direction of the company. I know I can make a big impact on the organization. [Reiterate passion and set the tone for the back-and-forth. Also a power play.]

Based on other opportunities I am looking at, I feel $XXX is a fair number for what I can bring to ___________ [12-15% above the offer is optimal. Higher, and you risk insulting them or pricing yourself out of the job. Lower and you could be leaving $ on the table.] If you can match that I am ready to sign today and will give my notice tomorrow. [This is the most important part. Present a slam dunk and dare them not to take it. You are coming over the top with enthusiasm; it’s a power play and almost always pays off.]

I look forward to your response. [Power play; leave them with good vibes]

Cheers,
xxx


Episode 70 – Part 1 (July 18, 2018)
Episode 73 – Part 2  (July 25, 2018)
Episode 76 – Part 3 (August 1, 2018)

Category: Psychology

Jordan Harbinger w/ Alex Kouts © 2018
August 3, 2018

Win Bigly

Persuasion in a World Where Facts Don’t Matter

I: Strategies

https://oedipaldreams.wordpress.com/2017/12/15/win-bigly-i-strategies/

II: Tips

https://oedipaldreams.wordpress.com/2017/12/16/win-bigly-ii-tips/

III: Human Nature

https://oedipaldreams.wordpress.com/2017/12/28/win-bigly-iii-human-nature/

IV: Master Persuader

https://oedipaldreams.wordpress.com/2017/12/28/win-bigly-iv-master-persuader/

V: Debates & Arguments

https://oedipaldreams.wordpress.com/2017/12/28/win-bigly-v-debates-arguments/

VI: Filters / Cognitive Dissonance etc.

https://oedipaldreams.wordpress.com/2017/12/28/win-bigly-vi-filters-cognitive-dissonance/


Category: Perceptions

Scott Adams © 2017
December 28, 2017

Win Bigly (VI: Filters / Cognitive Dissonance)

Filters

The key concept of a filter is that it is not intended to give you an accurate view of reality. All it is supposed to do is give you better results than other filters. And I propose that the best way to objectively determine the usefulness of a filter is by asking if it makes you happy and also does a good job of predicting the future.

In other words, you become aware that your perceptions are independent from the underlying reality. That awareness never leaves you. Once you understand your experience of life as an interpretation of reality, you can’t go back to your old way of thinking.

In the third dimension, where persuasion rules, it is entirely normal and routine for different movies to play on the same screen at the same time. But if each of us is living in our own little movie, which one is best? I submit that the best filter on politics is the one that makes you happy and is the most accurate in predicting what will happen next.

Persuasion Filter: The Persuasion Filter’s view of the world is that we’re irrational 90% of the time. And one of the biggest sources of this irrationality is cognitive dissonance.

Better version: When he described to people better versions of themselves, they automatically rewired their minds to rise to his description.

Democracy: The democracy illusion is probably one of the most beneficial hallucinations humankind has ever concocted. If you think democracy works, and you act as if it works, it does work.

Positivism: You can program yourself all the way from a funk to a good mood if you change the inputs. And best of all, you can do the same to others. Fill their heads with positive thoughts and they will associate those good feelings with you. They couldn’t separate those feelings if they tried.


Cognitive Dissonance

This is the mental condition in which people rationalize why their actions are inconsistent with their thoughts and beliefs. For example, if you think you are smart, but you notice yourself doing something that is clearly dumb, you might spontaneously hallucinate that there was actually a good reason for it. Or perhaps you believe you are an honest person, but you observe yourself doing something dishonest. Your brain will instantly generate a delusion to rationalize the discrepancy.

The most common trigger for cognitive dissonance is when a person’s self-image doesn’t fit their observations. For example, if you believe you are a smart and well-informed person, and then you do something that is clearly dumb, it sends you into a state of cognitive dissonance. And once you are in that uncomfortable state of mind, your brain automatically generates an illusion to solve the discomfort. In this situation, your brain would tell you the new information is inaccurate. The alternative is to believe that you are dumb, and that violates your self-image. You don’t like to change your self-image unless it is in the direction of improvement.

When you experience cognitive dissonance, you spontaneously generate a hallucination that becomes your new reality. To outside observers, the hallucination might look ridiculous. But to the person experiencing the hallucination it all makes perfect sense.

The first “tell” for cognitive dissonance is the absurdity of the rationalization [cigarette smoker example]. The best way to know you are seeing cognitive dissonance and not routine irrationality is to look for the trigger. The trigger is whatever made the person realize that their own actions were in conflict with their self-image.

People are wrong all the time, and it doesn’t always cause hallucinations. The key variable in this case was their certainty. And it was public certainty, repeated loudly and often. Their opinions of Trump became part of their self-image. They saw themselves as the smart ones, in start contrast to what they imagined were the Trump supporters with their mullets and pick-up trucks.

The tell is not the quality of the explanations. The tell is how many of them there are. If you have a situation that can be explained with one reasonable explanation, that reason might be close to reality. But having lots of different explanations is usually a clear tell for cognitive dissonance.


Scott Adams

I’m already rich. No one owns me. The common business term for that situation is having F-you money. And I have it. That gave me the freedom to say whatever I thought was both useful and true.

I also have one more thing going for me: I don’t feel shame or embarrassment like normal people. I wasn’t always this way. It’s a learned skill.

Let’s remind one another that sometimes a blind squirrel will find a nut. Sometimes that squirrel finds more than one nut.

I think of democracy as more of a mental condition than a political system. Democracy works because we think it works, and we want it to work. But if you removed the public hallucination that an average ignorant voter has the ability to forecast the future, the whole thing would fall apart.

As a general rule, I try to fill my brain with optimistic thoughts in order to crowd out the bad ones that sometimes slip in. This is a form of self-hypnosis, using the power of association. The positive thoughts lift my energy, which in turn lifts my mood, and even my immune system.

Life can always find a way to trip you up. But if you are playing the odds, always look for situations that give you two ways to win and almost no way to lose. I sometimes describe this situation in a more generic sense as having a system instead of a goal. A goal is, by definition, one way to win and infinite ways to lose. A good system gives you lots of ways to win and far fewer ways to fail. *(e.g. good system = going to college and getting an engineering degree. You don’t know what your ultimate career will be, but the engineering degree gives you lots of ways to win while vastly reducing the numbers of ways to lose. You don’t see many homeless engineers).

THE END

Scott Adams © 2017
December 27, 2017

Win Bigly (V: Debates & Arguments)

Debates / Arguments

Analogies: When your debate opponents retreat to analogies, it is because they have no rational arguments. You won. There’s a reason your plumber never describes the source of your leak with an analogy. He just points to the problem and says it needs to be repaired or replaced. No one needs an analogy when facts and reason can do the job.(However, analogies are useful for explaining new concepts.)

Personal Attacks: If you have been well behaved in a debate, and you trigger an oversized personal attack, it means you won. When people have facts and reasons in their armory, they use them first. When they run out of rational arguments, they attack the messenger. That is the equivalent of throwing the gun at the monster after you run out of bullets.

Word-thinking: is a situation in which people are trying to win an argument by adjusting the definition of words. It is easy to see why people try to win debates this way. But the other side is unlikely to change their opinions just because someone adjusted the definition of a word. Word-thinking simply isn’t persuasive.

High-Ground Maneuver: involves taking the conversation out of the children-are-bickering mode and reframing it as you – the adult in the room – explaining to the children how things work.

Start by fully embracing the criticism from the other side. If you debate the criticism, you stay in a child frame. If you accept it and make a case for learning and improving, you move to the adult high ground and leave the children behind. Whenever you see claims of hypocrisy, you are also likely to see an opportunity for the High-Ground Maneuver.

Challenge Their Self-Image: The next time someone is doing something you find objectionable, don’t attack that person’s actions. Instead, ask if this is who the person wants to be. Most people think they are good people, even if they sometimes do bad things. If you remind them of their identity, and their aspirations or their identity, you will usually be met with cognitive dissonance and an implied promise to change.

Simplicity: The way he word things – especially the simplicity of it – makes his points easy to remember & easy to repeat. He’s a human quote machine. (Trump catchword: Sad!)

Business writing: is about clarity and precision. The main technique is keeping things simple. Simple writing is persuasive. A good argument in five sentences will sway more people than a brilliant argument in a hundred sentences. Don’t fight it.

Scott Adams © 2017
December 27, 2017


VI: Filters / Cognitive Dissonance etc.

https://oedipaldreams.wordpress.com/2017/12/28/win-bigly-vi-filters-cognitive-dissonance/